More People, More Homebuyers?

1. Start with the correct population breakdown

The latest official annual population data available is for June 2025. Total population increased from 5,453,566 in June 2021 to 6,111,175 in June 2025. Citizens increased by 162,492, Permanent Residents by 55,181 and nonresidents by 439,936.^[1]

About two thirds of the increase came from nonresidents. The National Population and Talent Division says the recent rise was led mainly by Work Permit holders supporting construction and major infrastructure, followed by migrant domestic workers.^[2] These groups require accommodation, but much of that need is met through worker housing, employer homes or rental arrangements rather than individual home purchases.

Citizen growth is not the number of new citizenship approvals

The increase of 162,492 in the citizen population is a change in population stock. It includes births, deaths, movement in and out of Singapore, returning overseas citizens and citizenship changes. It should not be described as 162,492 new citizenship approvals.

In 2024, 22,766 people were granted citizenship and 35,264 were granted Permanent Residency. The five year averages were 21,300 citizenships and 33,000 Permanent Residencies a year. Adult new citizens generally come from the existing Permanent Resident pool.^[4] A status change can therefore move someone from one column to another without creating a new resident or a new household.

2. Population must pass through a housing demand funnel

A headcount is only the first stage. Every later filter reduces the number that can become effective demand for a particular project.

Official data shows resident households rising from 1,390,600 in 2021 to 1,487,100 in 2025, an increase of 96,500. Average household size fell from 3.15 to 3.06 people. One person households rose by 30,500 and two person households by 23,000.^[5]

Estimated owner occupied resident households increased from 1,236,900 to 1,355,700 over the same period, while rented resident households declined from 134,800 to 121,200. The home ownership rate rose from 88.9% to 91.2%.^[6]

3. Testing the one in four household assumption

Dividing the resident increase of 217,673 by the 2025 average household size of 3.06 gives about 71,100 household equivalents. Applying a one in four assumption gives about 17,800 homes.

The official household series gives a different starting point. Resident households actually increased by 96,500. Applying the same one in four assumption to that figure produces 24,125 homes. The gap appears because household size fell and household formation does not move in a fixed ratio with population.

4. How many homes are bought by new citizens?

IRAS applies stamp duty treatment according to the buyer’s status and property count when the purchase occurs. A citizen buying a first residential property has no ABSD, while a Permanent Resident buying a first residential property pays 5%.^[7] Once a recently naturalised citizen buys, the transaction falls within the citizen category.

Market reporting in July 2026 linked stronger luxury home demand to interest from new citizens and Permanent Residents. The report measured 353 Core Central Region transactions at S$5 million or more in the first half of 2026, up 24.7% from the same period a year earlier. It did not publish how many of those 353 purchases were made by recently naturalised citizens.^[8]

This distinction protects the article from overclaiming. A market professional observing more enquiries from new citizens is useful qualitative evidence. It is not a national transaction count.

What a proper study would require

1. Define a new citizen as someone who obtained citizenship within a stated period before purchase.
2. Link anonymised property and citizenship records with proper privacy safeguards.
3. Deduplicate joint purchasers so one home is not counted several times.
4. Separate first home ownership from replacement, upgrading and investment.
5. Separate new sale, resale, landed, Core Central Region, Rest of Central Region and Outside Central Region purchases.

5. What keeps property demand moving?

Property markets are driven by net housing need and gross owner movement. Net housing need adds an occupied dwelling. Owner movement occurs when an existing household sells one home and buys another. This can support several transactions without adding the same number of households.

The scale of owner movement is visible in the official figures. During 2025, developers sold 10,815 private homes excluding ECs, while 14,622 resale transactions and 1,055 subsale transactions were recorded.^[9] These are gross transactions, not newly formed households.

MND also reported that the stock of owner occupied private residential properties rose by about 27,000 units from 2020 to 2024, compared with about 8,000 for properties that were not owner occupied. MND linked the stronger owner occupation growth partly to measures that prioritised genuine owner occupation.^[10]

Right sizing is visible, but address data has limits

For Singaporeans who bought new Core Central Region homes in 2026 up to mid July, an industry analysis reported that 55.8% had a private residential address and 16.1% had an HDB address. This is consistent with possible right sizing and upgrading.^[11] A registered address does not prove ownership, a sale, or the size of the previous home. It is an indicator, not a complete buyer history.

The removal of the fifteen month wait period from 27 July 2026 also allows eligible private property owners to buy nonsubsidised HDB resale flats without that temporary restriction, subject to the prevailing conditions.^[12] This reinforces the two way nature of owner movement. Some right sizers support private condominiums while others leave private housing for HDB resale.

Collective sale demand is powerful but cyclical

Collective sale owners often need replacement homes and may have substantial sale proceeds. Yet this is not a steady annual demand floor. Industry research recorded collective sale values of S$8.7 billion in 2017 and S$10.8 billion in 2018, while the strongest year from 2021 to 2025 was S$3.6 billion in 2022.^[13] These owners can create a strong demand wave, but the timing changes with developer appetite, land prices and successful tenders.

6. Correcting the foreign buyer comparison

Knight Frank analysis reported by The Business Times found that foreigners bought 1,216 nonlanded private homes in 2018, equal to 6.3% of islandwide nonlanded purchases. Foreign participation was higher within the Core Central Region, but even there it varied by sale type and period.^[14]

For a much narrower segment, industry analysis of URA caveats reported that 2025 buyers of new nonlanded homes in the Core Central Region were about 82% citizens, about 15% Permanent Residents and 3.1% foreigners. New sales in that segment rose to 1,916 units. The same research put the average foreign share of new Core Central Region purchases at 17% from 2015 to 2022, 10.7% in 2024 and 4.7% in 2026 up to mid July.^[11]

The 2018 islandwide figure and the 2025 Core Central Region new sale figure are not a clean comparison. Geography, property type, sale type, buyer definition and period must match before a trend is claimed.

IRAS confirms that foreigner ABSD rose from 30% to 60% for purchases on or after 27 April 2023.^[7] This sharply reduced foreign participation, but it does not prove that new citizens alone filled the gap. Citizens, Permanent Residents, existing private owners, HDB upgraders, right sizers and collective sale owners all contribute.

7. Affordability converts potential demand into effective demand

A household may need a home and still be unable or unwilling to buy a particular new launch. The binding constraint is often total price quantum, not price per square foot alone.

This example explains why 96,500 additional resident households cannot simply be matched against private new launch inventory. Most households do not fall within the income, liquidity, life stage and location profile for a S$2 million purchase.

Remaining stock is not one interchangeable block

At the end of the second quarter of 2026, URA reported 42,472 private residential units including ECs in the pipeline with planning approval. Of these, 15,810 were unsold. Another 18,153 unsold units had not yet received planning approval. These numbers include future supply and do not represent completed homes ready for occupation.^[17]

A compact unit near an MRT station at a manageable quantum does not compete perfectly with a large prime unit, a distant family home or a project completing several years later. The available household count can exceed unsold inventory while some units remain slow because the buyers and the stock do not match.

8. What consumers are doing now

Second quarter 2026 data shows a selective market. Overall private residential prices rose 0.5%, but landed prices gained 2.5% while nonlanded prices eased 0.1%. Core Central Region nonlanded prices rose 1.8%, Rest of Central Region prices fell 1.2% and Outside Central Region prices eased 0.1%.^[17]

Developers launched 1,783 units and sold 2,141 during the quarter because buyers also selected stock from earlier launches. Resale recorded 3,813 transactions and represented 62% of all private sale transactions. Vacancy increased to 6.4%.^[17]

Four consumer behaviours stand out:

1. Quantum comes first. Buyers are testing total cash, CPF, stamp duty, instalment and emergency reserves before accepting a price per square foot story.
2. New launch is compared with resale. Immediate occupation, visible condition, established surroundings and usable space remain strong resale advantages.
3. Local owner movement matters. HDB upgraders, private home right sizers, landed sellers and collective sale owners can keep sales active without equal net household growth.
4. Location and layout are decisive. Buyers do not absorb national inventory evenly. They choose a specific home for family, work, school, transport, retirement or rental reasons.